Author Archives: Paul Miller

About Paul Miller

Captain Paul Miller has developed a unique approach to aviation safety by forecasting safety hazards. Yes, that is right, forecasting safety hazards. Most people think of safety as a study of what has already gone wrong. But SafetyForecast looks forward in time at factors that will negatively impact your business in the future. Then using this unique and very powerful forecasting tool, you will be able to develop a unique Safety Plan. That is right, a Safety Plan. Your tailored Safety Plan will reduce losses of personnel and property to well below your most extraordinary expectations. That is our guarantee. No other safety consultant uses this method and no method has ever achieved the superior results by driving the mishap rate towards zero in such a short time. SafetyForecast modest consulting fees will be recovered by your business in a short time by the reduction of just the financial and legal losses alone, losses that you do not often think about due to mishaps. No other consultant will provide a unique Safety Plan that will make your company prosper by saving lives and injuries. Additionally your company will prosper by reducing the damage and destruction of property. Try SafetyForecast and you will see for yourself how well the Safety Plan works.

Lining Up to Land on a Taxiway?

Not as crazy as it sounds, mistaking ramps, taxiways, parking lots and other places for the approach to the landing runway, continues to pose a commercial flight crew challenge. One cloudy and shadowy late afternoon, I saw a superb international … Continue reading

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Skybrary is a Superb and Up-to-Date Safety Resource

http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Portal:Operational_Issues Visit Skybrary for training resources on a wide range of operational issues, human factors and other subjects. By incorporating these training tools into your commercial operation, you may be able to drive your operation towards zero mishaps.✈️

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UAE 521, 3 August 16 at Dubai Int’l

Looking at the last few entries of the  flight aware track log for UAE 521, showing significant wind shear is of interest. The Dubai  Int’l weather reported in the Metar is also of interest.     http://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAE521/history/20160803/0435Z/VOTV/OMDB/tracklog Metar     OMDB 030900Z … Continue reading

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Just Culture Arguments

Advocating for a Just Culture, without referencing the logic of a larger safety, legal and administrative contextual framework can take on the appearance of advocating for an exemption to all the laws of all the nations that have developed over … Continue reading

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Making 2016 a Successful Year for Your Commercial Aviation Organization

Making 2016 a successful year for your commercial aviation organization depends on one word:  training. By emphasizing flight crew training, a commercial company equips their operating crew members with the tools to conduct flight operations smoothly and to confront any … Continue reading

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How Unusuality and Reality Intersect in Flight Safety: A Simple Metric for Determining Major Hazards to Commercial Flight Operations from the Unremarkable Accumulation of Minor Unfavorable Elements and a Recommended Operations Adjustment Procedure to Avoid Mishap Occurrence

Abstract: The cascading collection of seemingly minor unfavorable elements during a particular commercial flight can often arouse little notice because there may be no collective safety measuring system or metric to assemble disparate elements. However, just as the story of … Continue reading

Posted in Accident Prevention, Aviation Safety, metric, Safety Forecasts and Plans, Safety Investigations, Safety Management, Unusuality, Unusuality recognition | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

UPS1354 at Birmingham, AL BHM

UPS1354 crash BHM The all weather runway at BHM was closed by some one in ATC at the request of the field electrical maintenance office. This was done on a scheduled basis, ahead of time, probably in writing. Why did … Continue reading

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Air Asia 8501 Crash: Cause is No Mystery-Thunderstorms Can Kill

In the 1931 novel “Night Flight” by Saint-Exupéry, we learn that even intrepid pioneering aviation heroes in the end are not match for thunderstorms in Patagonia.  We find out that thunderstorms can and will kill. We loose the wonderful hero … Continue reading

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Qantas Weight and Balance: Don’t Scrape Your Tail, Instead Hold Your Nose Steady

The below cited flight safety story contains a reference to an ATSB report, about which I have a comment. The story alleges that the report cites an incorrect weight and balance calculation as the problem. They say, “This meant that … Continue reading

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MH 17 : Is War Downing Of Commercial Airliners a Security or Safety Issue ?

When a purposeful human pulls the trigger on a sophisticated surface to air missile launcher, but does so without any of the intelligence available to the casual browser on the internet, is this a human error or a military mistake? … Continue reading

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