Bad Math from ICAO?

ICAO may be fostering bad mishap math. ICAO is stating that an increase in mishaps is attributable to an increase in flight operations. If that were so mathematically, than as any airline operated more flights and or flew more hours, their mishap rate would directly increase. But that is not the case anecdotaly, statistically, case historically or in the experience of this pilot. The author of the ICAO report is looking for the reasons for more mishaps in the wrong place. This is critically important especially if everyone is trying to achieve the goal of reducing aviation mishaps. To do so, you have to know what are the causes of mishaps in the first place It is my opinion that aviation mishaps are a direct result of unresolved hazards. The rate of mishap occurrence is reducible by resolving hazards to aviation as quickly as possible. Even though ICAO is not providing the leadership needed globally to move safety in the correct and desired direction, it is my hope that many other safety minded managers are, and are doing so by regularly working to quickly resolve hazards to safe flight operations. Best regards, Paul Miller

See ICAO Report below:

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

ICAO Issues Global Safety Report Aviation accidents around the world ticked higher last year, attributable to the resurgence in air traffic, according to ICAO’s inaugural State of Global Aviation Safety Report issued this week. The number of accidents attributed to scheduled commercial flights increased in 2010 to 121, compared to 113 in 2009, resulting in an accident rate of 4.0 per million departures. The accident rate in 2009 was 3.9 per million departures. While the overall number of fatalities in 2010 was below those in 2005 and 2006, there has been an increase in fatalities over the past three years, ICAO said, increasing from 670 in 2009 to 707 in 2010. At the same time, the number of scheduled commercial flights increased by 4.5 percent globally since 2009, which represents the first significant annual growth in the sector since 2007 and coincides with an increase of 4.2 percent in the global GDP. North America, which represents a third of global air transport traffic in terms of departures, was the only region to see a small decrease (0.6 percent) in its aggregate traffic figures. “In the context of this period of renewed growth, and in light of anticipated increases in air travel, it is imperative to maintain a very strong focus on initiatives that will further improve safety outcomes in the future. ICAO is therefore continuously developing and refining more proactive and risk-based methods to further reduce the global accident rate, enabling the safe expansion of air travel in all regions,” according to the report. “ICAO is working in partnership with the international aviation community to achieve continuous reductions in the global accident rate, with an emphasis to improve safety performance in those regions experiencing significantly higher accident rates or having specific safety challenges.”

Published by Capt. Paul Miller

Aviation safety expert with 43 years in the sky

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