Challenges

Well Paul, a worthy initiative for sure. At least you got me curious, particularly about how we are going to get to a useful forecast. And also about how we will get investments in effort (and perhaps even money) going in anticipation of future threats. (This is a bit of an Achilles-heel for initiatives such as FAST as well). This would seem to me to be some of the challenges here. And as challenges make life interesting, this is not a bad thing. Do you have some ideas already ?

Michel Piers
NLR Netherlands

Safety Forecasting?

Every field prepares and presents regular forecasts. The most common example of course is the daily weather forecast. We can make an activity plan for our day based on the weather forecast. But other f0recasts are equally important to us. Who doesn’t listen to the sports forecast for the baseball or football season? Who doesn’t listen to the financial forecasts, especially in these times? Production forecasts, crop forecasts, marketing forecasts, political forecasts-well the list goes on and on.

We all listen to forecasts to determine a plan of action.

But how about safety? How does we make a plan of action for safety activities? Do we make a plan of action? Or do we just re-act to circumstances? Are we the “tail being wagged by the dog” in most cases, when it comes to safety?

This blog is dedicated to safety professionals, managers who have to make a plan to keep their organizations running smoothly without losses due to injury and material damage.

I hope that we can share our ideas and make our organizations safer each day through forecasting and planning. Welcome aboard!!

Safety Forecasting and Planning

Safety Managers need an annual safety plan. How else can a safety manager stay ahead of problems affecting operational safety? But a plan must have its basis in a forecast of things to come. But how can a safety manager forecast safety problems if they have not occurred? This is the purpose of this blog. This blog will recommend methods for creating an annual safety forecast and from this basis, the safety manager will have a way to create an annual safety plan.

One of the best ways to maintain a mishap free operation is to maintain a vigorous safety forecast and a robust annual safety plan. The work put into the forecast and plan will be enormous. But the work put into mishap investigations is staggering, often fruitless and always time late.
So join the discussion with me as we share ways to create your own safety forecast and from it, your own safety plan. Paul Miller

Safety Plans

Safety Plans are based on Safety Forecasts. Safety Forecasts look both backward in time and forward in time. A Safety Forecast looks backward at what has happened and what is currently happening. Then it looks forward in time at what probably will happen. The element of probability often is a calculation with some difficulty. But from a simple point of view, examples can help. If I stand in traffic in a busy highway, would it be probable to be hit by a car or truck? Most of us would say yes, highways have high traffic occurrence. The probability is high.
On the other hand if we stand in a quiet side street, would we be hit? Slower, less frequent and more courteous traffic might lead us to say only maybe or even no. Lets change the problem to a fit and aware athlete. Would that change your conclusion? What about a small child or an elderly person with impaired vision?
Each factor changes the problem. In like manner, each facet of your operation might change the nature of your forecast of likely events.
Safety Plans are actions to be taken to ensure safe operations based on what the Safety Forecast has identified as the risks ahead. For example how important is training? Can a well trained flight crew handle more difficult situations successfully? Is better maintained equipment a factor? Is technology important?
A Safety Plan must be a plan for success, one which guarantees success, one which enhances your chances of success to the highest level possible.

Commercial Airline Board Mishap Investigations: Are There Other Conclusions from which We Can Learn and Improve the Commercial Safety Record?

One of the subjects of this blog is Major Commercial Airline Board Mishap Investigations, One of the objects of this blog is to seek alternative analyses, conclusions and recommendations that could be reached. The sole purpose of seeking and reaching these alternative analyses, conclusions and recommendations is to improve commercial aviation safety, for the purpose of moving the industry closer toward the point that it is mishap free.
Investigations can give us an insight into a mechanical chain of events. NTSB and other major mishap investigation boards often accomplish this goal. Yet investigations can also give us insight into human thinking, human nature and human factors, “human factors” in my opinion, being another expression for the human condition, and since mishaps are the subject, the part of the human condition most often observed is that of “human error.” This further, perhaps deeper insight might give us a window into ways to prevent mishaps from ever reoccurring.

It may be possible to reexamine the facts of major airline mishap disasters for the purpose of drawing conclusions which would lead to recommendations which could make commercial aviation closer to being mishap free than it is today. This may seem a daunting task, taking into account the complexities of aviation disasters. This may seem an unreachable task, taking into account all of the very talented people who even today pursue aviation mishap investigations formally for the NTSB and other groups. This may seem a redundant task considering the wide range of party status granted by the NTSB to interested groups.

But it may be possible that new analysis, conclusions and recommendations can be reached, though however daunting the task.

Essentially, that is the purpose of this blog. The free expression of ideas may lead the commercial aviation community towards a safer future.