How Unusuality and Reality Intersect in Flight Safety: A Simple Metric for Determining Major Hazards to Commercial Flight Operations from the Unremarkable Accumulation of Minor Unfavorable Elements and a Recommended Operations Adjustment Procedure to Avoid Mishap Occurrence

Abstract: The cascading collection of seemingly minor unfavorable elements during a particular commercial flight can often arouse little notice because there may be no collective safety measuring system or metric to assemble disparate elements. However, just as the story of “the straw that breaks the camel’s back[1]” informs us, flight crew members facing unusual accumulationsContinue reading “How Unusuality and Reality Intersect in Flight Safety: A Simple Metric for Determining Major Hazards to Commercial Flight Operations from the Unremarkable Accumulation of Minor Unfavorable Elements and a Recommended Operations Adjustment Procedure to Avoid Mishap Occurrence”

Is the Study of Accidents the Same as Mishap Prevention? Are the Two Related or Is Mishap Prevention More?

Recent publications of the Boeing Statistical Summary of Commercial Airplane Accidents, The ICAO Safety Review,  The EASA Annual Safety Review and the UK CAA Global Fatal Accident Review cause me to react this way: These are documents of failures, of human failures, of failures despite the best efforts of many government and commercial organizations. IContinue reading “Is the Study of Accidents the Same as Mishap Prevention? Are the Two Related or Is Mishap Prevention More?”

Safety Forecasting and Planning

Safety Managers need an annual safety plan. How else can a safety manager stay ahead of problems affecting operational safety? But a plan must have its basis in a forecast of things to come. But how can a safety manager forecast safety problems if they have not occurred? This is the purpose of this blog.Continue reading “Safety Forecasting and Planning”