I want to add a special welcome to new subscribers. Your readership is highly valued. It is the intention of Safety Forecast to look ahead of operations and find hazards. With this information the next intention of Safety Forecast is to encourage immediate responses to counter the hazard, interim remediations to adjust procedures and longContinue reading “Welcome New Subscribers”
Author Archives: Capt. Paul Miller
Ethiopian Airlines 409: Lebanese Investigation Incomplete?
In my opinion, there can be no worse outcome of an aircraft disaster than to read two years later an incomplete aviation mishap investigation report. Remembering that the sole purpose of a Safety-based aircraft accident investigation report is find the cause of the mishap, so that others can prevent this same mishap from happening again,Continue reading “Ethiopian Airlines 409: Lebanese Investigation Incomplete?”
The Growing Threat of Criminalization in Commercial Aviation Disasters
Should criminalization be opposed by safety advocates and organizations? What has the ICAO Annex 13 given commercial aviation safety through the ICAO CAA investigative process? What is the tradition of law in Western civilization? Is it seeking recompense and legal remedies for injury, death, property damage, property destruction, the expenses of treating mass casualties andContinue reading “The Growing Threat of Criminalization in Commercial Aviation Disasters”
Airlines Lobbying usurp Citizens Rights of Pilots in Latest FAA Ruling
Cargo Carriers Lawyers and the Power of Dollars Overcomes Cargo Pilots Safety Rights of One Man One Vote. Fatigue, the greatest Human Factors problem in commercial aviation, was introduced back into the recipe of severe hazards by the work of lobbying lawyers working for the US cargo carrier industry. US Transportation officials chose to succumbContinue reading “Airlines Lobbying usurp Citizens Rights of Pilots in Latest FAA Ruling”
Bad Math from ICAO?
ICAO may be fostering bad mishap math. ICAO is stating that an increase in mishaps is attributable to an increase in flight operations. If that were so mathematically, than as any airline operated more flights and or flew more hours, their mishap rate would directly increase. But that is not the case anecdotaly, statistically, caseContinue reading “Bad Math from ICAO?”
Six Rules for Failure?
Here are unspoken managerial safety problems. I call them: “Miller’s Six Rules to Fail-While-Complying” 1. Many companies are run by managers who do not know their own industry well. In commercial many managers are not line pilots. Many managers do not come from the ranks of the company’s own line holders. 2. They will actContinue reading “Six Rules for Failure?”
Understanding Risk, Hazards and Mishap Prevention
It is critical to understand the terms risk and hazard. A hazard is a something that causes danger such as an incomplete or outdated procedure, an object such as a equipment, a malfunction or a human factor. The hazard is real, it is perceivable and most of all discoverable BEFORE any mishap, accident or incidentContinue reading “Understanding Risk, Hazards and Mishap Prevention”
Yak 42 Mishap, Sept 2011, Hockey Team Loss
Really it is the experience of the commercial aviation industry about which I speak. Airline operations today should be safe so that mishaps are a rarity, when in fact, not only do we see continued commercial aviation mishaps continuing unabated, but we see mishaps that are 100% preventable. Safety is being absurdly left behind inContinue reading “Yak 42 Mishap, Sept 2011, Hockey Team Loss”
More Questions Asked by Flight Crew Members Regarding AF 447
More questions have been raised by fellow safety minded pilots regarding AF Flight 447. Here are several: 1. Why were they flying through that nasty convective weather? 2. Why did the captain leave the cockpit just prior to the flight’s arrival to this area? With respect to the questions asked, here is my take. 1.Continue reading “More Questions Asked by Flight Crew Members Regarding AF 447”
Air France 447 and Jean-Pierre Otelli, “Piloting Error, Volume 5”
Heard about the book today. Jean-Pierre Otelli who specializes in aviation safety, publishes his book “Piloting Error, Volume 5” today. But in my opinion, he only re-analyses the facts collected in BEA’s report. I believe that the BEA’s report is seriously flawed and the book adds little to mishap prevention. Would you like proof thatContinue reading “Air France 447 and Jean-Pierre Otelli, “Piloting Error, Volume 5””
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